If you're reading this via email, please click this link to watch a full video update.

Ackman Warns PwC

In an attempt to thwart the inevitable short squeeze on Herbalife's stock, Bill Ackman has recently turned to "warning" PricewaterhouseCoopers of potential exposure if they validate Herbalife's accounting. The letter is included in full below. Irrespective of the fact that PwC has been in business for over 150 years and have maintained a stellar reputation among auditing firms, Ackman felt the need to educate them on accounting. In the letter, he sites a number of issues with Herbalife's numbers, none of which will be addressed here because, candidly, I have no idea what it all means. However, I do trust analyst Tim Ramey. He wrote a solid rebuttal to Ackman's letter, which was included on ValueWalk. The key bullets:

The opening point in the PWC letter is that Herbalife is a pyramid scheme, and PWC will have risk if it audits the Herbalife books and does not disclose that fact. The remainder of the 52 pages does absolutely nothing to prove or allege the pyramid scheme hypothesis. Remarkable.The letter is an eleven-point discussion of various accounting treatments that Herbalife and its previous auditors have taken. We did not see a single “smoking gun” or anything that would cause us meaningful concern. There are audit-type questions, something that two accountants might have a spirited discussion about at a cocktail party, but nothing that seems material. If this is all Ackman has after millions spent on forensic accounting, Ackman has been cheated. On some of the points Pershing Square is just wrong, in our opinion; a risk you take when your securities analysis does not ever engage in a dialog with the company.

What Does This All Mean?

It's the fourth quarter with 2 minutes left on the clock. The ball is on Ackman's 5 yard line. He's down by 16. He needs to traverse the field, score a touchdown, get a two-point conversion, recover the onside kick, score another touchdown and get another two point conversion. Ackman claims to be armed with the "truth;" however, it's his version of the truth. In order to pull out of his self-induced tailspin, he needs two things to happen: He needs Herbalife to report a decrease in earnings next quarter (not likely to happen). And he needs, more than anything, the FTC to take action. The FTC is NOT going to take action. Care to know why? (1) HERBALIFE IS NOT A PYRAMID SCHEME; and (2), the existing regulations leave plenty of room for debate on both sides. If there were a lawsuit, the FTC would lose. Plain and simple. The FTC, in my opinion, is not equipped to target companies in the gray. They've got to go after the easy targets. And Herbalife, without question, does not fit that definition.If you're reading this via email, click here to download the letter.